Projects per year
Personal profile
Personal Statement
My research focuses on the psychology of human decision-making. In particular, I examine decisions made under conditions of risk and uncertainty in organisational/institutional contexts including the legal, defence and security sectors. I also have an interest in applying and improving techniques for strategic foresight such as the Delphi method and scenario planning, as well as the interface between such soft OR methods and quantitative risk modelling.
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Collaborations and top research areas from the last five years
Recent external collaboration on country/territory level. Dive into details by clicking on the dots or
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Who knows best? Working with uncertainty
Weaver, B. (Principal Investigator), Belton, I. (Co-investigator), Dong, F. (Co-investigator), Gillon, F. R. L. (Researcher), Heron, G. (Co-investigator), Lagnado, D. (Co-investigator) & Sanna, G. (Researcher)
15/06/25 → 15/02/26
Project: Internally funded project
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ESRC IAA 2023 / R220785-158
Belton, I. (Co-investigator)
ESRC (Economic and Social Research Council)
1/04/23 → 31/03/28
Project: Research - Internally Allocated
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Adapting scenario planning to create an expectation for surprises: going beyond probability and plausibility in risk assessment
Derbyshire, J., Dhami, M., Belton, I., Onkal, D. & Aven, T., 1 Nov 2025, In: Risk Analysis. 45, 11, p. 3737-3757 21 p.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review
Open AccessFile3 Downloads (Pure) -
Designing a Bayesian urgency assessment tool for search and rescue in the Canadian Arctic
Peters, J., Quigley, J., Rudman, A., Belton, I., Howick, S., Kikkert, P. & Walls, L., 17 May 2025, Proceedings of the 22nd ISCRAM Conference. 12 p.Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book
Open AccessFile18 Downloads (Pure)
Activities
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Bayesian Networks – From Problem Structuring to Probabilistic Decision Support
Quigley, J. (Speaker), Belton, I. (Speaker), Rudman, A. J. (Speaker) & Peters, J. (Speaker)
18 May 2025Activity: Talk or Presentation › Oral presentation
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What do I Not Know? AI, Risk and Probation
Weaver, B. (Organiser), Gillon, F. R. L. (Participant), Heron, G. (Participant), Dong, F. (Participant), Belton, I. (Participant), Walls, L. (Participant), Lagnado, D. (Participant) & Sanna, G. (Participant)
12 Mar 2025Activity: Presenting or Organising an Event › Organiser of special symposia