Recent and future developments in earthquake ground motion estimation

Activity: Talk or presentation typesInvited talk


The estimation of earthquake ground motions that may occur at a given site during a future earthquake is a key aspect of seismic hazard assessment. In spite of great improvements in earthquake simulations, future shaking is still generally assessed using empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), which are also known as ground-motion models or attenuation relations. Many hundreds of GMPEs have been published since the first model in 1964. In the past decade the derivation and use of GMPEs within seismic hazard assessments have undergone significant improvements but there remain challenges in ground-motion prediction. This presentation will provide an overview of recent developments which include: improvements in the estimation of the ground-motion variability and its components; a move away from simple regression-based curve fitting; attempts at using non-parametric techniques; the use of much more and better (e.g. in terms of site characterization) data; attempts at including additional independent parameters; a better appreciation of epistemic uncertainty; extensions of spectral models to shorter and longer structural periods using individually-processed records; a more careful consideration of how the models perform at small and large magnitudes; and making the models easier to use within seismic hazard assessments. Finally, the presenter will provide his viewpoint on possible future directions in ground-motion estimation.
Period25 May 2016
Held atSociety for Earthquake and Civil Engineering Dynamics, United Kingdom
Degree of RecognitionNational


  • seismic hazard
  • seismic risk
  • engineering seismology
  • earthquake engineering
  • ground-motion prediction