Activity: Talk or presentation types › Invited talk
Description
Expert subjective probabilities plays a fundamental role in Bayesian methods. A sound process for elicitation of such judgment is necessary for improving the quality of data to inform the decision making through such methods. In this tutorial, we provide a summary of the fundamentals of Bayesian methods for decision making and a discussion of desirable characteristics of elicitation processes drawn from a variety of studies.
Specifically, we will cover an overview of the Bayesian approach, an introduction to Bayesian Networks, subjective probability, elicitation of a prior distribution and empirically informed prior distributions. The methods will be illustrated with case studies.